The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Do you love reading the Morning Digest every day? Please click here to send $1 our way to support our work!
Leading Off
• Senate: Politico reported
on Monday that the conservative Senate Leadership Fund, a deep-pocketed
super PAC run by allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, had reserved a total of $67.1 million in TV ad time
from just after Labor Day through Election Day, in concert with its
affiliates. The reservations are aimed at defending the six Republican
Senate seats listed below:
-
Arizona (Martha McSally): $9.2 million
-
Colorado (Cory Gardner) $5.5 million
-
Iowa (Joni Ernst) $12.6 million
-
Kentucky (Mitch McConnell) $10.8 million
-
Maine (Susan Collins): $7.2 million
-
North Carolina (Thom Tillis): $21.8 million
SLF is the first major outside group on
either side to reserve fall air time for either the House or Senate, but
it won't be the last. That's because, by booking well ahead of time,
these organizations can lock in cheaper ad rates before high demand for
TV time brings prices up.
These reservations also give us an early
window into what SLF expects the major battlegrounds to be in the
contest to control the Senate. It's especially notable, though not
surprising, that North Carolina makes up almost a third of this initial
ad reservation: The state voted for both Mitt Romney and Donald Trump by
just small margins, and if Democrat Cal Cunningham unseats GOP
incumbent Thom Tillis, that means there's a good chance Team Blue will
have won enough seats elsewhere—likely in Arizona, Colorado, and
Maine—to flip the Senate.
A bit more surprising, though, is the site of
SLF's second-largest purchase, Iowa, where Trump romped to victory in
2016. However, the state did move back towards Democrats last cycle, and
businesswoman Theresa Greenfield is waging a well-funded campaign
against GOP Sen. Joni Ernst.
It's also interesting that almost $11 million
is going to defend McConnell in deep red Kentucky. The GOP's majority
leader does face an aggressive challenge from retired Marine pilot Amy
McGrath, who is one of the strongest Democratic fundraisers in the
country, but McConnell himself also has plenty of money at his disposal—almost $12 million as of Dec. 31 (McGrath had $9 million).
At the same time, there are a few competitive
Senate races that aren't on this list, though it's very possible that
SLF or another GOP group will home in on them later. Neither of the two
contests in Georgia is included, for instance, even though SLF recently spent $1 million on ads
attacking Rep. Doug Collins, who is challenging fellow Republican and
McConnell ally Sen. Kelly Loeffler in the November all-party primary.
SLF said on Friday that it had "no plans" to go back on the air for Loeffler, though its leaders insisted that the decision was due to the coronavirus rather than Loeffler's emerging insider trading scandal.
Conversely, SLF hasn't yet targeted the two
most vulnerable Democratic incumbents, Alabama's Doug Jones and
Michigan's Gary Peters. However, these are only SLF's preliminary
bookings, and we can be sure the PAC will put down much more money as
Election Day draws closer.
Major outside groups like SLF can also always
reduce or completely cancel reservations if a race looks like it's
already won or is too far gone to be salvaged. That might cheese off
station managers, but usually the only downside to cancelling airtime is
that if you do so mistakenly, you'll pay a big premium for any
last-minute ad buys to get back on TV.
Election Changes
• Arkansas: Officials in Arkansas have announced that they will not postpone the state's March 31 runoffs, making it the only state in the nation
still set to conduct primary elections in the month of March. While no
congressional or statewide elections will host runoffs, 12 counties that
make up about 30% of the state's population will do so for local races.
Administrators say they have reduced the number of polling locations
and are encouraging voters to cast ballots absentee. While Arkansas
normally requires an excuse to vote absentee, the state's Board of
Elections Commissioners has said all voters may request absentee ballots for the runoffs due to the coronavirus.
• California: Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has ordered that all voters be sent mail-in ballots
for the May 12 special election taking place in California's 25th
Congressional District. A small number of in-person polling sites will
remain open to assist voters who need help in casting ballots.
• Hawaii:
Hawaii Democrats have canceled the in-person portion of their April 4
presidential primary, which was set to be conducted mostly by mail to
begin with. To compensate, the party will mail out a third round of ballots to voters.
• Massachusetts: Massachusetts lawmakers have postponed
four legislative special elections that were set for March 31. Two
races for the state Senate will now take place on May 19, while two for
the state House will happen on June 2. In addition, the legislature
passed a new bill on Monday that would give towns the ability to reschedule any local election that was set to take place by May 30 to as late as June 30. The measure would also allow all voters to request a mail ballot
(Massachusetts normally requires an excuse to vote absentee). The bill
now goes to Republican Gov. Charlie Baker for his signature.
• New Mexico: Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham reportedly plans to call a special session of the legislature
(which is run by Democrats) to address emergency responses to the
coronavirus, including the possibility of moving to all-mail elections
this year. Democratic Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver says
that she and other election officials are also looking into the matter,
though she says she believes it would take an act of the legislature to
switch to a fully vote-by-mail system.
• New York: Democratic Attorney General Tish James has asked Gov. Andrew Cuomo,
a fellow Democrat, to issue an executive order mandating that all New
Yorkers be sent mail-in ballots so that they can vote from home in New
York's April 28 presidential primary. A special election for the state's
vacant 27th Congressional District is also set for the date.
• Ohio: Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose says he will propose legislation
to mail every Ohio voter who has not yet cast a ballot in the state's
canceled March 17 primaries a postage-paid application for an absentee
ballot which they could then return to receive an actual mail-in ballot
that would also be postage-paid.
It's not clear by exactly what date voters would have to return their ballots, though in a letter to lawmakers,
LaRose says he believes the election has "effectively" been
"extend[ed]" through June 2. In addition, LaRose is asking for the
"discretion" to hold in-person voting on that day, meaning he might
envision cancelling in-person voting altogether. LaRose has asked
members of the legislature, who are reconvening this week, to pass his
bill, though a copy does not appear to be available yet.
• Pennsylvania: Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf and Republican leaders in Pennsylvania's legislature have reportedly reached an agreement to move the state's presidential and downballot primaries from April 28 to June 2. WPXI reporter Aaron Martin says lawmakers expect the measure to pass Tuesday or Wednesday.
• Puerto Rico: Gov. Wanda Vázquez has signed a bill postponing Puerto Rico's presidential primary from March 29 to April 26.
• Rhode Island: Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo has signed an executive order
delaying Rhode Island's presidential primary from April 28 to June 2,
following a recommendation by the state's Board of Elections. The order
also directs the board to conduct a "predominantly mail ballot"
election, which Democratic Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea had
previously advised.
• Texas: Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has postponed
Texas' May 26 runoffs until July 14, when voters will pick nominees in a
number of high-profile congressional races, among others. Abbott's
order did not address the question of expanding voting by mail, which
Democrats in the legislature are pushing for but which Republicans
oppose. The state Democratic Party has gone to court
seeking that all voters be allowed to cast absentee ballots due to the
coronavirus; currently, Texas law requires an excuse to vote absentee.
• Wisconsin: A federal judge granted a request
by state and national Democrats on Friday to extend Wisconsin's online
registration deadline from March 18 to March 30 ahead of the state's
April 7 elections. The judge denied the plaintiffs' other requests
but said he might reconsider the possibility of allowing absentee
ballots to count so long as they're postmarked by Election Day, the
deadline currently set by state law, even if they are received
afterward.
Senate
• KY-Sen: Retired Marine pilot Amy McGrath launched a radio spot last week hitting Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell for leaving D.C. as the coronavirus crisis got worse in order to attend a judge's swearing-in back in Kentucky, and McConnell is using his first TV spot of the race
to respond. The narrator declares that the McConnell is "at the center
of the battle to rush aid to Americans" and claims that McGrath "uses
this crisis, spending millions on false, partisan attacks."
Gubernatorial
• AK-Gov: Recall Dunleavy announced last week that, because of the coronavirus, it would collect signatures by mail instead of in person in order to get a recall measure against GOP Gov. Mike Dunleavy on the ballot. The group needs to collect more than 71,000 signatures,
which is 25% of the votes cast in 2018: There's no time limit for
gathering petitions, and a recall election would take place 60 to 90
days after the Alaska Division of Elections verified that enough valid
signatures have been turned in. If Dunleavy is removed from office, he
would be succeeded by Lt. Gov. Kevin Meyer, a fellow Republican.
The Alaska Supreme Court still needs to rule
on the legality of the recall, though it has allowed Recall Dunleavy to
collect signatures. The court said last week that oral arguments would begin on Wednesday
as originally scheduled, though attorneys would now be participating by
phone. Stand Tall With Mike, the main group fighting to prevent
Dunleavy from being removed from office, announced last month that it
was dropping its legal opposition
to the recall campaign, but the state Division of Elections is still
challenging a lower court ruling that allowed it to proceed.
• MT-Gov:
Candidate fundraising reports are in covering the first two-and-a-half
months of 2020, and GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte continues to have a massive cash advantage
over all of his rivals in this open seat race. Gianforte raised
$390,000 from donors, and he self-funded an additional $500,000.
Gianforte had $368,000 on-hand that he could use to win the June
primary, as well as an additional $520,000 he could only spend if he
made it to the general election.
Attorney General Tim Fox, who looks like
Gianforte's main intra-part rival, brought in $114,000 during this time,
but he had just $33,000 to spend for the primary. The third Republican
in the race, state Sen. Al Olszewski, raised $25,000 and self-funded
another $17,000, and he had $50,000 on-hand for the primary.
On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney
outraised businesswoman Whitney Williams $245,000 to $186,000. Cooney
held a $204,000 to $66,000 cash-on-hand edge for the primary, though
Williams had another $190,000 she could spend in a general election.
House
• CA-11: Democratic Rep. Mark DeSaulnier's office said
on Saturday evening that the congressman's condition had "deteriorated"
since he was admitted to the hospital on Wednesday for pneumonia, and
that he was now "in critical condition." The statement said that
DeSaulnier was hospitalized after developing pneumonia as the result of
"a traumatic rib fracture that occurred after falling during a run," and
that "the hospital later advised he was COVID-19 negative."
• MI-13: On Wednesday, Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones quietly filed paperwork with the FEC for a potential rematch against freshman Rep. Rashida Tlaib in the August Democratic primary.
Tlaib narrowly beat Jones 31-30
last cycle in the six-way primary for the full term in this safely blue
seat. However, there were only four candidates on the ballot in the
special election primary held on that same day to succeed former Rep.
John Conyers, and in that race, it was Jones who beat Tlaib 38-36.
Jones ended up serving in the House during the final months of the
GOP-controlled 115th Congress before returning to her job as leader of
the Detroit City Council.
Do you love reading the Morning Digest every day? Please click here to send $1 our way to support our work!